The first cold spell of the season in Eastern Europe

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  • This image shows the temperature anomalies (i.e. the difference from normal) for Europe over the next few days. Blue areas show where it will be colder than normal for early October. Image: MeteoGroup.

    This above image shows a pressure map for Europe with a large area of high pressure over Scandinavia, bringing colder air flows to parts of central and eastern Europe. Image: MeteoGroup

  • The first cold spell of the season in Eastern Europe
    01.10.2016 16:27

    While the UK will experience a calm and relatively warm start to October, many areas of Europe will experience the first ‘cold advection’ of this season, a large movement of cold air southwards. All these big changes will be driven by a strong area of high pressure that will remain anchored over Scandinavia for the whole first week of October.

    The UK is still under the influence of a low pressure system that has caused many showers today, particularly in Britain, some of which were heavy and thundery. However, the synoptic configuration is going to change significantly within the next few hours. In fact, as soon as this area of unsettled weather will move away over the North Sea, an area of high pressure will start to push north, passing over the UK on Sunday, and it will arrive in Scandinavia by Monday. Here, this cell will continue to develop and reach considerably high pressure values of more than 1046 mb by next Wednesday. At the same time, a large and deep area of low pressure will be rotating offshore in the Atlantic kept distant by the high pressure over the north of Europe, but probably not enough not to cause persistent rain across Ireland.

    When this new synoptic configuration over Europe will be accomplished, a large amount of cold air will start its way towards the central-east of Europe driven by the high pressure over Scandinavia. If we want to point out the origin of this cold air, it would probably be the sea area south of Svalbard islands. This air mass will then pass over Finland and Lapland, trying to gain the characteristics of polar continental air mass. Obviously, since we are just entering in the month of October, the incoming cold air will unlikely be as cold as in winter at the ground level.  Anyway, the temperatures could reached values of 8/10 degrees below the average next week over many countries in the east of Europe, such as Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine and down till Serbia and Bulgaria.

    The arrival of this cold air will be followed by the deepening of an old area of low pressure sitting towards the Black Sea. This will cause a large amount of precipitation in the areas affected by the cold advection, giving the chance of snow in many areas. In some cases, the snowflakes may  even fall below 1000 metres above the sea level, probably between next Wednesday and Friday.

    At this point, the level of uncertainty increase considerably, but the most likely scenario sees this cold area of low pressure move back westward towards the UK, opening the Atlantic door again and attracting a new low pressure system that will be waiting close to Iceland….but this is another story.

    By: Alessio Martini