Settling down next week?

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  • Synoptic forecast for midday next Tuesday, indicating the dominance of high pressure.

    A funnel cloud was spotted over MeteoGroup HQ last week, characteristic of the unsettled conditions of the past few weeks.

    Ensemble forecast of temperature averaged across the UK. Note the trend for warming from Sunday, with the dotted line being the climatic mean.

  • Settling down next week?
    28.08.2014 13:44

     

    Just as we enter the first few days of the meteorological autumn, the weather is forecast to take on a more summer-like tone across large portions of the UK. What conditions can we expect through the first week of September?


    It’s been rather cool and at times unsettled during the past few weeks across the UK with winds often blowing from the west or north-west, and some parts of Scotland have seen overnight temperatures dip below zero (Braemar fell to -2.1C overnight last Sunday into Monday morning). Low pressure systems have also brought heavy rain at times, notably earlier this week across southern parts of England and Wales, with another system set to move across Scotland tomorrow.

    However, there does appear to be a change on the way through this weekend. Forecasters use numerical weather models to ascertain the most likely conditions in the short and medium term, with uncertainty usually increasing the further in time ahead. However, when different models indicate an agreement in the general weather conditions, confidence increases. 

    Several models now indicate that high pressure will build from the south-west on Sunday and will be orientated around the UK for a good part of next week. High pressure is normally associated with settled weather conditions due to the effect of sinking air, and it is shaping up to be noticeably drier and warmer than of late. With winds shifting south-easterly, temperatures are forecast to be several degrees above average at around 25-26C in the south, with even parts of northern Scotland potentially seeing 20-21C by midweek. However, one thing to keep an eye on in north-western parts of the UK this Sunday is the remnants of ex-Hurricane Cristobal, which could bring wet and breezy weather for a time. North-west Scotland may not be completely out of the woods through the week, either, with the chance of a passing front bringing the threat of occasional rain.

    Looking further ahead into the following weekend, it does seem as though the broad area of high pressure will weaken with the possibility of rain arriving from the west. Temperatures are likely to drop slightly, but they should still be a degree or so above normal for September.

     

    Keep up to date with the latest forecast for your location via our app, WeatherPro.

     

    By: Nick Prebble